The Five Rules of Football Wagering
By: John Fina
Okay, I have been handicapping for 30 years. In that time I have learned a lot of things about gambling. The following five steps will tell you my five rules on betting football.
1. Wager on any road team if their defense shut-out their opponent in their last game played.
2. Look to wager on home teams especially as underdogs in all intradivision games (teams that play each other twice per season).
3. Wager against any road team that won their last game played by 21 or more points.
4. Go against any NFL team that has a two or more game lead in their division standings at any point of the season.
5. Look to wager on the pointspread underdogs more often than the pointspread favorites. Underdogs do so much better due to the fact that most people are wagering the favorites which drives up the price (pointspread) on the favorite. The underdog usually has under-stated value.
Just follow these five basic rules of football handicapping and you'll drastically swing the odds in your favor.
Money Management
By: Rob Gillespie - BoDog.com
I said last year that this would be the most important column for those that want to win and I say it again this year because I think it is. I apologize to those that have read this material before, but good money management is what separates the pros from novice bettors. Money management theories and systems abound but I have yet to see any proof that any of them really work. What I do know is there are a lot of bad money management strategies to avoid and that is what I will cover today. Our book managers actually asked me not to write this column last year!
Here is the key point I want you to understand – Poor money management generates more losses for players than bad handicapping. Even the worst bettors seldom lose more than 55% of their picks. The easiest way to explain is to show a few examples. Take a look at the following four scenarios and hopefully you won’t recognize any of these habits as yours.
Scenario A – Raising your bet amounts. Alan is a $100 player. He typically plays half a dozen or so games a week and is a dedicated handicapper. The first week he makes 5 wagers of $110 to win $100 and goes 4-1. For the week, he has made a profit of $290 (4 wins of $100 and 1 loss of $110), a great week by any standard. He now thinks his handicapping skills are so sharp that he can beat the house on any week and now raises his plays to $200. In the second week he makes 6 bets of $220 to win $200 and goes 2-4. For the week he has lost $480 (2 wins of $200 and 4 losses of $220). So overall, Alan has lost $190 despite going 6-5 overall (54.5%). If he had simply played $110 on all 11 games he would have made $50 in profit. Raising the size of your plays after a short-term winning period will benefit the House greatly if and when things even out.
Scenario B – Lowering your bet amounts. Bill is also a $100 player but has a slightly smaller bankroll than Alan. He makes 6 plays of $110 and goes 2-4 for a loss of $240 (2 wins of $100 and 4 losses of $110). His bankroll is now too small to be able to play $100 a game so in the second week he only makes 5 plays of $55 to win $50 each. This week he wins 4 of the 5 and makes $145 (4 wins of $50 and 1 loss of $55). He now has the same overall winning record as Alan (6-5) but is down $95 anyway. Lowering the size of your plays after a short-term losing period or not having enough funds to make your plays will also benefit the books when your turn to win comes.
Scenario C – Risking your balance. Charlie likes to take big risks for big rewards. He posts up $110 and risks it all on a single game Saturday night, which he wins. His balance is now $210 and he risks it all on a Sunday 1pm game, which he also wins to bring his balance to just over $400. Feeling lucky, he puts the whole amount on a 4pm game and wins again to get his balance to an incredible $765 (and change) in less than a day. Then, he decides to go for the big win and risks the whole amount again on the Sunday night game, which he loses. Charlie has now lost $110 despite going 3-1. Wagering $110 for each of the four games would have yielded a profit of $190. Remember books have a 50/50 chance of wiping you out when you put all your action on any one game and those odds will catch up with you eventually.
Scenario D – Chasing your losses. David has a bankroll of $1000. He wagers $110 on a game and loses. He is frustrated at losing the money and wants to win it back so he wagers $121 (to win $110) on a second game and loses as well. He is now down $231 and is really frustrated. Thinking he can’t lose 3 in a row, he wagers $254.10 (to win $231) and loses yet again. He has now lost $485.10 and even a win with his remaining balance of $514.90 won’t get him back to even but he puts it all in play on another game hoping to get it close (it would be a win of $468.09). He loses the fourth game and has busted out. Losing streaks will happen to every player every year no matter how good they are and players that chase losses will not last for long.
Many books/sites that discuss money management will tell you to only wager 2-5% of your bankroll on any one play. I cannot say what the magic number is and I certainly do not have any magic formulas for picking winners or telling you how much to bet. However, it is very clear to me after years and years of watching some players win consistently and others lose consistently that these are the four worst traps to avoid. Keep your bets to reasonable, affordable and consistent amounts and your bankroll will last a long time. Even more importantly, if you can pick more than 52.4% winners, you will come out ahead of the book in the long run and that is the only time frame that matters!
Good money management will not make you a winner, that still has to come from choosing the right teams, but it sure will help your bankroll last. I had a lot of very nice emails from players who took this advice last season. Some said they won money over the course of the season for the first time but most just said it was the first time they had a plan, and that their money lasted way longer last year than in years prior.
Now, let me recap the weekend. College football was a little less exciting than the past few weekends. The games were more balanced and the action more spread out through all games than we have seen yet this season. On Thursday, the bettors got off to a good start with a moderate win on Nebraska (-11.5) over S. Mississippi. Saturday started very well with Kentucky (+11.5) nearly upsetting heavily bet Florida and Michigan State (+7) upsetting Iowa. Players had a good run after that. Arkansas was down 31-10 to Alabama and came all the way back to win (and cover the 2.5 points) 34-31 in OT. That was the player's biggest win and the House's toughest loss. Bettors also won with LSU (-15.5 @ Miss St), Kansas (+9.5 vs. Missouri), and Minnesota (-1.5 @ Penn St.). The House had a little luck at the end of the night when Arizona (+14.5) covered against TCU. The House did get a few smaller decisions and managed to eke out an OK day.
Sunday during the day was actually pretty good except for the KC/Baltimore game. The public was all over the Chiefs -3 so the late Kickoff return and a 17-10 KC win was a great one for bettors! Only three other games had any real decisions. Bettors were on Washington -3 vs. New England but had to settle for a Push. Pittsburgh -3 was a popular play and looked like a winner early, but the Titans came back for a big win that was good for the House. Denver -12 was the only other team bet heavily during the day so the Lions cover was good for books. Other than that, most games were quite evenly balanced, until Sunday night.
For Sunday night, the betting was all Indianapolis until about 20 minutes to kick-off. Then the news broke that Edgerrin James was out and the Saints money started to pour in. Good thing for us, or that would have been a really bad game. As it was, bettors did well with the Colts and the Over, but not enough to overcome the vig of a busy NFL Sunday.
For Monday Night, Green Bay was heavily bet all week and we had to be very aggressive with the line to keep the action inside our limits. The Packers big win got players back all their losses from Sunday and a little more.
I’ll be back next week with a look at First Half betting.
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with us is my number one priority. Should you have any questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally ensure you are satisfied with your BoDog experience.
Good luck with your wagers!
Ten Questions You Should Ask a Sportsbook Before Signing Up!
By: Jim Quinn - osga.com
Question: The top question you should ask of your book is "Where are you located and how long have you been in business."
Answer: Some of the best jurisdictions are Antigua, Curacao, Belize, England, Australia and of course, Costa Rica. Costa Rica, with hundreds of sportsbooks, finally introduced gaming licensing last year, while Antigua and Curacao each have gaming bodies within the government. England and Australia have real regulation, a gaming commission similar to the Casino Control Commission here in the US. Some of the places that have had problems over the years include Venezuela, Margarita Island, and St. Kitts. Recently a shop has opened in Panama, you can include Jamaica now as a good place since ESB moved out, and several reputable books are potentially moving to the Dominican Republic. The offshore industry has been alive and kicking for about 12 years – anyone telling you they have been around longer than this is not speaking of their operation offshore! The vast majority of books have surfaced in the last three years. With the climate of the industry today any operations that are less than one year old should be suspect.
Question: Next in the questioning should be "What are your money transfer methods and the fees associated with the sending and receiving of funds."
Answer: This has become a VERY important question as getting money to your offshore book has become a little more difficult every year. Most books will pick up the fees when you send them a deposit of $300 or more. Generally you will pick up the fees upon requesting a payout. Every book will do Western Union and should do Bank Wires. Western Union, obviously is the quickest method and you can easily request your money back that way – after all, sending cash is just like getting cash back. However, larger sums of money will cost more to be sent to you. Also, transfers in excess of $10,000 may get you flagged from using Western Union. Credit Cards are almost a thing of the past offshore, as many backs refuse transactions and most books will have to credit a card back first, before sending any cash payouts. Should your bank decide to join the ranks in refusing transactions after you make your initial deposit, it may be difficult to get a payout as the initial deposit can no longer be credited back to the original card. Money transfer methods such as NeTeller, SecureBuxx, FirePay and 900Pay have become increasingly popular and worthwhile. NeTeller has proven to be valuable to the gambler and is widely accepted. Finally, several books are beginning to do a direct back transfer, if you have no problem giving you banking information out, this may prove to be the wave of the future. You may even want to open a bank account strictly for you wagering. We recommend getting your payout via bank check from the sportsbook. This will generally arrive within 48 hours and the checks are written on US banks. They take about five days to clear. There is usually a flat fee of $25 to $40 - whether you are collecting 50 or 50 thousand, the same check fee applies.
Question: "How often can you request a payout and how often do they actually do payouts?"
Answer: The vast majority of books will let you request a payout seven days a week but most only pay out on certain days and certain times. It really varies here with most books paying out by noon Monday through Saturday. Same day payouts are more of a rarity than the norm, with much of the scams that have been perpetrated on the books over the years. Generally your money should arrive to you within 48hrs. Payouts via NeTeller and other online processors can occur quickly. .
Question: "What are your hours of operation?"
Answer: Ask about both wagering and customer service. During the NFL season many books will offer 24 hour wagering and should be open at least 10 hours per day for customer service. Look for a book that is open when you are used to putting your plays in.
Question: The Bonus.
Answer: Many books will be offering you the world to sign up or deposit. Be careful about too much of a good thing – though a 40% bonus looks good, collecting it may be difficult. Which leads to . . .
Question: "WHAT ARE THE STIPULATIONS FOR GETTING THE BONUS!!! ??"
Answer: Yes in all caps! This is perhaps the most important question for you to insure that there are no problems when you go to withdrawal some of your winnings. Every book wants to see action – you will have to roll your money over (usually plus the bonus) two, three or up to five times before being able to withdrawal any of your original deposit and bonus money. This means a $1000 deposit with a 20% bonus ($1200 in your account) will need to show $3600 in action before being able to withdrawal the original deposit and keep the bonus. If you do not meet this wagering requirement, expect to have the bonus rescinded.
Most will also be looking to keep you
as a client. Across the board is a minimum 30-day stay, with regular action,
policy. If you try to close your account before this 30 day rule is met, expect
to have the bonus money stay at the sportsbook. There are several books that
also tack on any fees associated with your deposit in all or some of the above
stipulations.
Question: "What is the minimum deposit and what are the
minimum and maximum wagers on the sides and totals?"
Answer: This
will vary all across the board. Find a book that suits your needs. Keep in mind
almost every shop has lower Internet minimums and maximums that over the phone.
The industry standard over the phone is $300 minimum deposit and $50 wager over
the phone, though many books are going with a $25 wager or less this year.
If you
are still on the phone with them at this point, it gets to be time to ask the
more difficult questions. Here is where customer service and professional clerks
come into play. This will make or break an organization. The good clerks will
know this information without having to put you on hold or get a
supervisor.
Question: "When are your lines posted for next
weekend’s games?"
Answer: If you are a line watcher or an early
bettor this is extremely important. Many books put their
lines up late Sunday night and many are available within hours of the last
results on the major sports.
Question: "What are your teaser and
parlay odds?"
Answer: The industry standards are 10:13 on a two-team,
7-point teaser and 13:5 on two team parlays. There are shops that specialize in
this type of action. If you play a good deal of teasers and/or parlays as part
of your regular wagering strategy, do some extra homework before accepting
standard odds. If the clerk has to put you on hold
or seems unsure and you plan on playing either of these wagers – get a supervisor
to clarify before signing up!
Question: "Are their backup phone
numbers and a backup website that I am able to use?"
Answer: The
answer should be Yes and Yes. These books are all located in countries whose
infrastructure is not that of the US. There are random outages as well as
interruptions from natural occurrences. The Caribbean has hurricane
season from August through November and Costa Rica has twice yearly sun spots!
Places that have modern conveniences like redundant lines and multiple satellites
may work to your favor down the road. Make sure to get a LOCAL phone number,
usually the local lines are land based, where the toll-free numbers are sent via
satellite transmission.
The bottom line is to do your homework.
